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Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology

KIOST produces climate prediction data using its own Earth System Model

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  • Date : 2021-06-30

The Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST, President Kim Woong-seo) announced that it has produced a paper on climate change forecasting using the Earth system model (KIOST-ESM), which was developed by KIOST, and published the paper in an international journal.* In the future, it is expected that Korea will be able to independently produce climate change prediction data and use such data for research.
* Ocean Science Journal, May 2021 (Article Title: Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology Earth System Model and Its Simulation Characteristics)


Global warming has many impacts on the ocean, such as ocean temperature rise, ocean acidification, and marine biodiversity changes. If climate change can be predicted, the impacts on the marine environment can be forecasted per scenario and vulnerability by region. Since climate is determined by the interaction of various factors,* climate prediction is also a highly technical field.
* Atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, geosphere, biosphere, etc.


KIOST-ESM, developed by KIOST, is a numerical prediction model that targets the entire globe to predict climate change in the future. This model is more than just a simulation into which data affecting climate change are input in that it creates a future climate change scenario that simulates the carbon cycle and accurately reproduces various climate indicators, including sea surface water temperature, salinity, and sea level temperature. In particular, the accuracy was greatly improved by supplementing the existing Earth system models. Such existing models did not properly predict the temperature distribution or El Nino variability in the Antarctic Ocean, which is important for climate prediction.


KIOST is participating in CMIP*6, a project for predicting past, present, and future climate change based on global climate models using climate change scenarios produced by KIOST-ESM. The prediction results of our model are expected to be included in the IPCC** Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be published in 2022. According to Park Gyun-do, a senior researcher who is studying ocean-climate variability in East Asia, “The global surface water temperature in 2100 will be 0.04 to 2.02°C higher than in 2015, and the temperature of the waters surrounding Korea is expected to rise by 0.94 to 3.64°C during the same period. He predicted, “The impact of changes in the ecosystem and environment due to global warming and climate change will be greater in the vicinity of Korea.” KIOST-ESM will be used in the government R&D project entitled “Establishment of a system for the identification and prediction of causes of high sea surface temperature around the Korean Peninsula attributable to the subarctic West Pacific,” and also used to identify the current status of the temperature of the waters surrounding Korea, identify future prospects, and study the mechanism of temperature increase.
* Coupled Model Intercomparison Project6
** IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): an international consultative body under the United Nations that works on global risk assessment and preparation of international countermeasures related to climate change


KIOST President Kim Woong-seo said, “To predict climate change, a global numerical model is needed. It is highly meaningful that we have built this Earth system model using our technology and that our research results are being cited in various academic papers.” He went on to say, “We will continue improving the accuracy of climate change forecasting by producing high-resolution ocean climate change forecasting data and improving data disaggregation."



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Last Update : 2021-07-19